IAIFI hackathon · contribution to InverseBench (ICLR 2025)

What may a learned prior legitimately put in the null space?

Two scientific inverse problems on real survey cadences. In both, the thing a diffusion prior is asked to supply is exactly the thing the data cannot determine — so the usual worry about hallucination becomes a quantity you can compute rather than a caveat you write.

Headline numbers

19 / 4608numbers the light curve constrains, out of map pixels — 99.6% of map space is null
+0.44 / −0.15null-space fidelity: matched prior recovers real hidden structure; out-of-distribution goes negative
1.6×10⁻⁴worst disagreement with starry, the field-standard forward model
×3.0factor by which a single posterior's error bars understate the truth, on 69% of pixels

New to this? Two three-minute primers

background

Starspots 101

What a starspot is, and why a rotating spotted star produces a periodic light curve. Drag a spot around a live star, change the inclination, and watch the brightness respond — including the case where the spot sits on the cap that never rotates into view.

background

Aliasing & harmonics 101

Why two different periods can fit the same photometry exactly: folding at half the period when the star has two dips, and the one-cycle-per-day beat that ground-based observing bakes in. Includes what a periodogram is actually showing you.

The two problems

Prior swap: constrained parts agree, null parts differ
primary

Starspot mapping

Recover a stellar surface map from a rotational light curve. The degeneracy is analytically known, so every posterior splits exactly into what the data determined and what only the prior could supply.

  • effective rank (SNR>1)19
  • null fraction99.59%
  • spot map power that is invisible83.7%
  • permanently hidden polar cap6.7%
Multimodal period posterior with folded light curves per mode
second problem

Period recovery under a window function

The alias family is a genuinely multimodal posterior, and its mode positions are predicted in advance by the survey's own measured lattice f = a·f_sid + (b/4)·f_sol.

  • window peaks matching the lattice26
  • median residual to lattice6.4×10⁻⁵ c/d
  • contact binaries genuinely degenerate7 / 7
  • detached EBs degenerate2 / 8

The result, in one table

Correlation between a posterior's null-space component and the true null-space component, on identical data (PnP-DM). Read across the rows.

true surfacegeneric priorspot-informed priorverdict
spotted+0.017+0.436legitimate — real hidden structure recovered
generic−0.035+0.036inert — nothing recovered, no harm
out-of-distribution−0.012−0.146hallucination — anti-correlated with truth
Why this is legitimate rather than cheating. Real stars occupy a restricted region of map space, so a data-driven prior genuinely carries information a flat prior does not. The point is that whether it is doing so is decidable — and when the hypothesis is wrong, the prior is confidently wrong in a direction set by its training set.

Figures

Reproduce

conda env create -f environment.yml        # torch 2.11+cu128 (RTX 5070 = sm_120)

python scripts/nullspace_analysis.py       # what the data can and cannot constrain
python -m starspot.train --kind spotted    # ~25 min each on an RTX 5070
python -m starspot.train --kind generic
python scripts/prior_experiment.py         # the prior swap
python scripts/make_starspot_figures.py

./notebooks/render.sh                      # execute notebooks -> HTML + PDF
./scripts/build_site.sh                    # assemble this site under docs/

Both problems are registered in InverseBench's own interface — patches in inversebench_patch/. The starspot problem runs against their stock VPPrecond + SongUNet with no wrapper, and its evaluator reports frac_null_power, rmse_constrained and rmse_null so their harness can report how much of any reconstruction is data-driven.

What this does not show

The surfaces and light-curve shapes are synthetic; the cadence and per-epoch uncertainties are real. No comparison against a published Doppler-imaging map has been made, so there is no external ground truth here. Nothing in this work resolves a spot map in the sense a reader might hope — that is the finding, not a shortfall of method. Every "fraction constrained" is a statement about a stated SNR threshold and a stated inner product (area-weighted L² on the sphere), both reported with the numbers.

Two claims were corrected during the work and the corrections are kept in the repository rather than quietly dropped: irregular sampling does not itself cost modes (diurnal clustering does), and the alias mask does not improve period recovery (the dominant failure is a harmonic, which no window mask can remove).